BLS 2024–2034 Projections · O*NET task analysis

Will AI replace your job?

An AI-exposure score for every U.S. occupation, built from official BLS employment projections and O*NET task data. Search 832 occupations, 291 industries, and 1,965 employers.

The national picture

Across 832 occupations and roughly 170 million U.S. jobs, BLS projects 581 occupations growing through 2034 and 244 contracting. The average occupation has about 37% of its tasks exposed to AI automation.

581
Growing occupations
272
High / very-high exposure
+8.1%
Fastest sector · Healthcare
-1.6%
Slowest sector · Mining & Extraction

Projected workforce demand by sector

BLS Employment Projections (2024–2034) by major NAICS sector. Healthcare and professional services lead; retail and extraction contract.

Projected employment change by industry sector Diverging bar chart from BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034. Teal bars show growing sectors, rose bars show contracting sectors.Healthcare+8.1%Professional Services+7.8%Information & Tech+7.2%Arts & Recreation+5.7%Construction+4.7%Finance & Insurance+3.6%Hospitality+2.9%Utilities+2.4%Transportation+2.4%Agriculture+0.1%Education+0.1%Manufacturing0%Retail-1.2%Mining & Extraction-1.6%
Source: BLS Employment Projections, 2024–2034. Teal = projected growth, rose = projected contraction.

Projected employment change by sector, 2024–2034: Healthcare+8.1%, Professional Services+7.8%, Information & Tech+7.2%, Arts & Recreation+5.7%, Construction+4.7%, Finance & Insurance+3.6%, Hospitality+2.9%, Utilities+2.4%, Transportation+2.4%, Agriculture+0.1%, Education+0.1%, Manufacturing0%, Retail-1.2%, Mining & Extraction-1.6%.

PlainWorkforce combines official BLS Employment Projections for 2024-2034 with O*NET task analysis to measure how exposed every US occupation is to AI automation. Each occupation receives an AI exposure score from 0-100% based on the proportion of its tasks that current or near-future AI systems can perform.

Whether you are a student choosing a career path, a worker considering a transition, or a policy researcher studying labor market disruption, PlainWorkforce gives you the data to make evidence-based decisions. We cover 832 occupations across 291 industries, with detailed profiles showing growth projections, median wages, education requirements, and task-level AI vulnerability.

Not sure where to start? Our guides break down the key questions: how many jobs are at risk from AI, which remote jobs are most vulnerable, how apprenticeships compare to college degrees on cost, earnings, and AI resilience, and which careers are most future-proof through 2034.

All projections come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. AI exposure scores are derived from O*NET task importance data. This is informational analysis based on federal data sources, not career advice.

Exposure vs. growth, where the big jobs are heading

The 16 largest U.S. occupations by AI exposure (horizontal) and projected 2024–2034 growth (vertical). The bottom-right is the danger zone, high automation exposure and shrinking; the top-left is the future-proof corner.

Future-proofGrowing but exposedStable, lower-AIMost at risk16.8%34.4%52%69.6%87.2%-11.2%-3.8%3.5%10.9%18.3%AI exposure (%) →Projected growth (%) →Home healthRetail salespersonsFast foodGeneralRegistered nursesCashiersLaborersCustomer service repreStockersOffice clerksJanitorsWaitersHeavySecretariesSoftware developersMaintenance

Bubble size = current employment. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034; AI-exposure scores are PlainWorkforce's analysis of O*NET task data.

Registered Apprenticeships

Earn while you learn, DOL FY2024 data for 844,900 active apprentices

View all states →
844,900
Active Apprentices (FY2024)
32,683
Registered Programs
$16.21/hr
Avg Starting Wage
$29.64/hr
Avg Completion Wage
Electrician
95,000 active
$39/hr at completion
Plumber
52,000 active
$35/hr at completion
Carpenter
41,000 active
$29/hr at completion
HVAC Mechanic
38,000 active
$30/hr at completion
Pipe Fitter
32,000 active
$36/hr at completion
Sheet Metal Worker
28,000 active
$32/hr at completion
Explore all states, completion rates, and wage data →

How We Measure AI Risk

O*NET Task Analysis

We analyze every task within each occupation from the O*NET database, evaluating whether it can be automated by current or near-future AI systems.

BLS Projections

Official 10-year employment projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show which occupations are growing or contracting through 2034.

AI Exposure Score

Each occupation gets a 0–100% AI exposure score based on the proportion of its tasks that are susceptible to automation, weighted by importance.

Guides & Analysis

Editorial research and plain-language explainers from our team. Every guide is written to help you read the underlying public data correctly.

About this data

How PlainWorkforce works, and why you can trust these projections

What this site is

PlainWorkforce tracks U.S. occupation and industry employment projections, wages, and AI automation exposure, built from BLS Employment Projections and O*NET task data, with employer profiles enriched from SEC EDGAR filings for publicly traded companies.

Editorial process

  1. Source. Download the BLS Employment Projections tables (occupation and industry, 2024-2034), the O*NET 30.0 database of task and skill descriptions, and SEC EDGAR company filings for employer profiles.
  2. Verify. Derive AI exposure scores from O*NET task importance combined with BLS employment projections, evaluating whether each task involves routine data processing, pattern recognition, or physical dexterity.
  3. Publish. Cross-validate wage figures against BLS OEWS data and publish per-occupation, per-industry, and per-employer pages linking back to the source.

Editorial independence & corrections

The PlainWorkforce editorial team is independent and is not affiliated with the BLS, the Department of Labor, or the SEC. Found an error? Get in touch via the contact page. See our methodology for full source attribution.

Frequently asked

Which jobs are most at risk from AI automation?

According to BLS projections and O*NET task analysis, clerical and routine data-processing roles face the highest AI exposure. Bookkeeping clerks, data entry workers, and telemarketers consistently rank highest in automation risk studies.

How is AI exposure score calculated?

AI exposure scores are derived from O*NET task importance data combined with BLS employment projections. Each task is evaluated for its susceptibility to AI automation based on whether it involves routine data processing, pattern recognition, or physical dexterity.

What time period do these employment projections cover?

PlainWorkforce uses BLS Employment Projections covering the 2024–2034 decade, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These are official 10-year projections covering 832 occupations and 291 industries.