Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors

NAICS Code: 238220

Employment 2024
1,298,300
Projected 2034
1,361,300
Growth Rate
+4.8%
Net Job Change
+63,000
The verdict

BLS projects Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors to grow +4.8% through 2034 - 2.4 points faster than the 2.4% average across 291 U.S. industries, faster-growing than 73% of them. Its trajectory is close to the typical U.S. industry.

+4.8%
Growth 2024-34
73th
growth percentile
1,298,300
Workers (2024, ×1k)
+63,000
Net jobs (×1k)

Where Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors sits among all industries

Projected 2024-2034 growth across 291 U.S. industries (BLS). This industry is marked in rose.

Where Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors sits by projected growth

Projected employment change across tracked industries

4.8% Top 27% higher than 73% of 291 industries

Industries, banded by projected growth

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more industries. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count and share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source BLS Employment Projections · 2026-05-15

Steady-state read

Signature: 31.7% mean employer AI exposure across 17 tracked public companies .

Projected growth is middling and the public-company overlay is sparse - the BLS employment path is the primary evidence; company grades are a light secondary read.

NAICS 238220 · 1,298,300 workers (2024, ×1k) · source BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034. Employer AI grades are occupation-weighted scores from our SEC cohort, not automation predictions for every establishment in Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors.

Public companies near this industry

SEC industry labels matching tokens from Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors. 17 companies scored · mean AI exposure 31.7%.

A · 17
Tracked public companies tied to this industry sector with AI risk grades
Company AI grade
Argan Inc A
Brookfield Business Corp A
Brookfield Business Partners L.P. A
Construction Partners, Inc. A
Ferrovial SE A
Fluor Corp A
Geo Group Inc A
Granite Construction Inc A

Grades are occupation-weighted AI exposure from our employer corpus - not a claim that every establishment in Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors shares the same risk. Source: SEC company metadata + O*NET-weighted scores · as of 2026-05-15.

Peer Industries by Employment

How Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors (NAICS 238220) compares to industries of similar size, ordered by 2024 BLS employment.

Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors
1,298,300
1,287,300
1,192,700
Peer industries by 2024 employment, with 2034 projections and growth rates
Industry 2024 Growth
Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors 1,298,300 +4.8%
Automobile dealers 1,287,300 +2.7%
Building material and supplies dealers 1,212,100 +2.0%
Elementary and secondary schools; private 1,199,400 -0.4%
Legal services 1,192,700 +1.2%
Engineering services 1,179,600 +4.2%

Peers are selected by similarity in 2024 employment. Figures in thousands. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many people work in Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors?

As of 2024, the Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors industry employs approximately 1,298,300 workers in the United States, according to BLS Employment Projections data.

Is Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors growing or declining?

The Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors industry is projected to grow by 4.8% from 2024 to 2034, a net change of +63,000 jobs over the decade.

Which public companies sit near Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors?

17 tracked public companies whose SEC industry label matches Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors. Sample names include Argan Inc, Brookfield Business Corp, Brookfield Business Partners L.P.. Grades are occupation-weighted AI exposure scores, not company-specific automation forecasts.

How will AI affect the Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors industry?

Among 17 tracked public companies tied to this industry's sector, the mean occupation-weighted AI exposure score is 31.7% (most common grade A). That is a staffing-pattern signal from our employer corpus, not a forecast for every firm in Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors. Pair it with occupation-level AI exposure scores for role-specific risk.

What to do with this

Use Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors' employment and exposure numbers above to look up individual employers and occupations, not just the industry aggregate.

Industry-level figures are aggregates; individual employer and occupation outcomes vary.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024-2034; SEC employer metadata for AI grades Employment figures in thousands. Employer grades are occupation-weighted exposure scores, not firm automation forecasts