Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors

Industry Insight

The Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors industry is classified under NAICS code 238220 and employed approximately 1,298,300 workers in 2024 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections program. By 2034, BLS projects employment will reach 1,361,300 — a net change of +63,000 jobs over the decade. That works out to a +4.8% projected growth rate, a measured but positive trajectory.

NAICS 238220 sits within a broader sector ecosystem whose health depends on demographic trends, technology adoption curves, and policy decisions on immigration, tax incentives, and labor regulation. The occupation mix inside Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors determines how AI displacement risk filters down to individual workers — industries dominated by clerical and routine analytical roles face the steepest exposure, while those anchored in physical skill, patient care, or creative judgment retain stronger resilience.

Use this industry profile alongside our occupation rankings and employer AI risk grades to build a full picture. The BLS publishes detailed wage and employment figures for each sector in its Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics and Employment Projections programs. The BLS Employment Projections methodology blends input-output modeling, productivity forecasts, and occupational staffing patterns, so estimates are directional rather than precise, and industry-level outcomes depend heavily on macroeconomic conditions that evolve between projection cycles.