Medium AI Risk Slow Growth

Bus drivers, school

SOC Code: 53-3051

Bus drivers, school carries a 32% AI exposure score (Medium automation risk), with a median annual wage of $47,040 and +0.2% projected employment growth from 2024 to 2034 (BLS), affecting approximately 387,300 workers. Full task breakdown, skills, and employer data are below.

AI Exposure Score
32% Medium
Typical exposure

Proportion of tasks susceptible to AI automation (O*NET analysis)

Projected Growth
+0.2%
Typical growth
2024–2034 (BLS)
+900 jobs
Median Annual Wage
$47,040
Typical pay
BLS May 2024
How wage figures are sourced →
The verdict

At 32% AI exposure, Bus drivers, school sits 5 points below the 37.2% average across 832 U.S. occupations - more exposed than 37% of them. Most of its core tasks still require human judgment.

32%
AI exposure
37th
percentile
+0.2%
Job growth 2024–34
$47,040
Median wage
D

Career outlook score

40/100

Bus drivers, school, weighted across 3 of 3 tracked dimensions

A weighted composite of median wage, projected growth, and AI-automation security (inverted exposure), each benchmarked against every other tracked occupation. It describes this occupation's standing across those three dimensions, not a guarantee of future outcomes.

  • Median wage F $47,040

    Annual median wage, percentile rank vs all tracked occupations

  • Projected growth F +0.2%

    Projected employment change, 2024-2034, BLS Employment Projections

  • AI exposure (inverted) C+ 32% exposure

    Lower O*NET task-automability scores lower risk; this dimension scores security, not exposure

Employment vs AI exposure

Home health and personal care aides is #1 of 832 occupations by employment (4.3M, AI exposure rank #392 at 35%) vs. Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks #1 by AI task exposure (95%, employment rank #17 at 1.6M).

4.3M
Home health and personal care aides employment (#1)
#392
Home health and personal care aides AI rank
95%
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks AI exposure (#1)
#17
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks employment rank

Automation-risk inventory

Exclusive cut of 832 occupations by PlainWorkforce automation-risk band. Orthogonal to the continuous AI-exposure distribution chart below and to this occupation's single risk badge, this is the corpus band mix, with Bus drivers, school in the Medium band.

Credential × growth standing

Open entry with non-declining BLS pace

Bus drivers, school keeps an HS / some college bar (333 of 832) and sits in Slow growth (245 of 832). Lower formal gates with a non-shrinking employment line - skill and AI desks matter more than credentials here.

Where Bus drivers, school sits among all occupations

AI-exposure score distribution across 832 U.S. occupations (O*NET task analysis). This occupation is marked in rose.

Where Bus drivers, school sits by AI exposure

AI-exposure score distribution across U.S. occupations (O*NET task analysis)

32% Lower than most lower than 63% of 832 occupations

Occupations, banded by AI-exposure score

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more occupations. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count and share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source O*NET task data (U.S. Department of Labor) · BLS 2024–2034

Source: O*NET task data (U.S. Department of Labor); AI-exposure scores are PlainWorkforce's analysis. As of BLS 2024–2034.

Bus drivers, school vs. its occupational neighbors

AI exposure (horizontal) vs projected 2024–2034 growth (vertical) for occupations in the same SOC group. Bus drivers, school is marked in rose; the top-left corner is the most future-proof.

Future-proofGrowing but exposedStable, lower-AIMost at risk18.9%25.2%31.5%37.8%44.1%-6.1%-2.2%1.7%5.6%9.5%AI exposure (%) →Projected growth (%) →Laborers, AI exposure (%) →: 23% · Projected growth (%) →: 1.5%LaborersStockers, AI exposure (%) →: 43% · Projected growth (%) →: 8.5%StockersHeavy, AI exposure (%) →: 43% · Projected growth (%) →: 4%HeavyLight truck drivers, AI exposure (%) →: 36% · Projected growth (%) →: 7.3%Light truck driversIndustrial truck, AI exposure (%) →: 24% · Projected growth (%) →: 1.1%Industrial truckFirst-line superviso, AI exposure (%) →: 35% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.7%First-line supervisoPackers, AI exposure (%) →: 41% · Projected growth (%) →: -5.4%PackersDriver/sales workers, AI exposure (%) →: 34% · Projected growth (%) →: 8.8%Driver/sales workersCleaners of vehicles, AI exposure (%) →: 20% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.9%Cleaners of vehiclesBus drivers, AI exposure (%) →: 32% · Projected growth (%) →: 0.2%Bus driversShuttle drivers, AI exposure (%) →: 36% · Projected growth (%) →: 6.7%Shuttle drivers

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034 (growth) and O*NET (AI-exposure analysis by PlainWorkforce).

Employment Projections

387,300
Employment 2024
388,200
Projected 2034
+0.2%
Change (%)
+900
Change (jobs)

Where This Score Comes From

Bus drivers, school's Medium automation-risk tier is computed from O*NET Database 30.0 task-level analysis, where each documented task the occupation performs is evaluated against current generative AI, robotic process automation, and machine-learning capabilities. A score below 40% reflects tasks anchored in physical dexterity, unstructured environments, or high-touch human interaction that current AI cannot reliably replicate.

The employment, wage, and education figures above come from a second, separate federal source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034, matched to the O*NET task data by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC 53-3051) code, with the wage figure cross-validated against the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) May 2024 survey. BLS figures are presented exactly as published, with no adjustment on our part; the SOC-code match is what lets Bus drivers, school be compared directly against every other tracked occupation on the same basis, not just roles that happen to share a job title.

For career planners, this profile should be read alongside the task, skill, and knowledge breakdowns below and the list of employers whose workforce composition includes Bus drivers, school. Adjacent occupations shown further down offer lateral moves that preserve industry knowledge while potentially reducing exposure.

Education & Entry Requirements

Typical Education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work Experience
None
On-the-Job Training
Short-term on-the-job training

Top Tasks (O*NET)

  1. 1. Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.
  2. 2. Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.
  3. 3. Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.
  4. 4. Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.
  5. 5. Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.
  6. 6. Escort small children across roads and highways.
  7. 7. Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.
  8. 8. Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.
  9. 9. Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.
  10. 10. Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.

Key Skills Required

  • Active Listening
  • Critical Thinking
  • Monitoring
  • Social Perceptiveness
  • Speaking
  • Operations Monitoring
  • Reading Comprehension
  • Coordination
  • Service Orientation
  • Operation and Control

Knowledge Areas

  • Transportation
  • Public Safety and Security
  • Customer and Personal Service
  • English Language
  • Mechanical
  • Law and Government
  • Geography
  • Personnel and Human Resources
  • Psychology
  • Administration and Management

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace Bus drivers, school?

Bus drivers, school has an AI exposure score of 32%, indicating a medium level of automation risk. The majority of tasks in this role require human judgment, creativity, or physical presence that AI cannot easily replicate.

What is the job outlook for Bus drivers, school?

According to BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, Bus drivers, school is projected to grow by 0.2% over the decade. Current employment stands at approximately 387,300 workers.

What skills are needed for Bus drivers, school?

Key skills for Bus drivers, school include Active Listening, Critical Thinking, Monitoring, and others. Typical entry-level education is High school diploma or equivalent.

How much do Bus drivers, school earn?

The median annual wage for Bus drivers, school is $47,040, according to BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2024). Actual earnings vary by location, experience, industry, and employer. The BLS publishes detailed wage percentiles by region in its Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program.

What education is required for Bus drivers, school?

The typical entry-level education for Bus drivers, school is High school diploma or equivalent. Employers generally expect None of related work experience. On-the-job training typically involves Short-term on-the-job training. Requirements can vary by employer and specialization.

Which companies employ Bus drivers, school?

Bus drivers, school roles exist across many industries and employers. Workforce composition is estimated from BLS industry-occupation employment distributions matched to SEC-registered public companies.

AI Exposure Rating

1.6
out of 5.0

Medium automation risk based on 10 analyzed tasks. Most tasks require human judgment and are resistant to automation.

Nationwide occupations with similar workforce profiles

Two data-derived peer sets for Bus drivers, school: AI-exposure neighbors and BLS 2034 growth neighbors (distinct comparison neighborhoods, cross-occupation).

Similar AI exposure score

Nearest O*NET task-automability scores nationwide (32% here).

Similar projected growth (2024–2034)

Nearest BLS employment change rates nationwide (+0.2% here).

Peers are nearest-neighbor matches on published BLS + O*NET metrics among occupations with ≥10,000 workers in 2024; corpus ranks above sort the full tracked set.

What to do with this

Use Bus drivers, school's numbers above to compare, not just read in isolation.

AI exposure scores estimate task automatability from O*NET data; they are not a certainty of job loss, and BLS growth projections are estimates, not guarantees.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 and O*NET Database 30.0. Employment figures are rounded. Wage data from BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

Every figure on PlainWorkforce is rendered directly from BLS/O*NET source data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these figures, or report a data error. Data current as of BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

Sources: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, O*NET Database 30.0.