Medium AI Risk Slow Growth

Bus drivers, school

SOC Code: 53-3051

Bus drivers, school carries a 32% AI exposure score (Medium automation risk), with a median annual wage of $47,040 and +0.2% projected employment growth from 2024 to 2034 (BLS), affecting approximately 387,300 workers. Full task breakdown, skills, and employer data are below.

AI Exposure Score
32% Medium

Proportion of tasks susceptible to AI automation (O*NET analysis)

Projected Growth
+0.2%
2024–2034 (BLS)
+900 jobs
Median Annual Wage
$47,040
BLS May 2024
How wage figures are sourced →
The verdict

At 32% AI exposure, Bus drivers, school sits 5 points below the 37.2% average across 832 U.S. occupations - more exposed than 37% of them. Most of its core tasks still require human judgment.

32%
AI exposure
37th
percentile
+0.2%
Job growth 2024–34
$47,040
Median wage

Where Bus drivers, school sits among all occupations

AI-exposure score distribution across 832 U.S. occupations (O*NET task analysis). This occupation is marked in rose.

AI exposure distribution - Bus drivers, school marked 1 occupations at 0–10% 1 0 43 occupations at 10–20% 43 10 184 occupations at 20–30% 184 20 332 occupations at 30–40% 332 30 158 occupations at 40–50% 158 40 64 occupations at 50–60% 64 50 29 occupations at 60–70% 29 60 15 occupations at 70–80% 15 70 5 occupations at 80–90% 5 80 1 occupations at 90–100% 1 90 AI exposure (%) →
Top 63% by AI exposure Higher AI exposure than 37% of all 832 occupations.

Bus drivers, school has ai exposure of 32%. Distribution: 1 occupations at 0-10%; 43 occupations at 10-20%; 184 occupations at 20-30%; 332 occupations at 30-40%; 158 occupations at 40-50%; 64 occupations at 50-60%; 29 occupations at 60-70%; 15 occupations at 70-80%; 5 occupations at 80-90%; 1 occupations at 90-100%.

Source: O*NET task data (U.S. Department of Labor); AI-exposure scores are PlainWorkforce's analysis. As of BLS 2024–2034.

Bus drivers, school vs. its occupational neighbors

AI exposure (horizontal) vs projected 2024–2034 growth (vertical) for occupations in the same SOC group. Bus drivers, school is marked in rose; the top-left corner is the most future-proof.

Future-proofGrowing but exposedStable, lower-AIMost at risk18.9%25.2%31.5%37.8%44.1%-6.1%-2.2%1.7%5.6%9.5%AI exposure (%) →Projected growth (%) →LaborersStockersHeavyLight truck driversIndustrial truckFirst-line supervisoPackersDriver/sales workersCleaners of vehiclesBus driversShuttle drivers

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034 (growth) and O*NET (AI-exposure analysis by PlainWorkforce).

Employment Projections

387,300
Employment 2024
388,200
Projected 2034
+0.2%
Change (%)
+900
Change (jobs)

Occupation Insight

Bus drivers, school (SOC 53-3051) carries an AI exposure score of 32%, placing it in the Medium automation-risk tier. This score is computed from O*NET Database 30.0 task-level analysis, where each task an occupation performs is evaluated against current generative AI, robotic process automation, and machine-learning capabilities. A score below 40% reflects tasks anchored in physical dexterity, unstructured environments, or high-touch human interaction that current AI cannot reliably replicate.

The economic context matters alongside the risk score. BLS counted approximately 387,300 workers in this occupation in 2024, and projects a +0.2% change through 2034 - modest growth that keeps the occupation viable even as tasks evolve. Median annual compensation stands at $47,040, reflecting both skill scarcity and the value employers place on the tasks that remain difficult to automate. Entry typically requires High school diploma or equivalent, plus None of related experience.

For career planners, this profile should be read alongside the task, skill, and knowledge breakdowns below and the list of employers whose workforce composition includes Bus drivers, school. Adjacent occupations shown further down offer lateral moves that preserve industry knowledge while potentially reducing exposure. Pair the AI exposure score with the BLS employment projection and wage percentiles above for a complete career assessment.

Education & Entry Requirements

Typical Education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work Experience
None
On-the-Job Training
Short-term on-the-job training

Top Tasks (O*NET)

  1. 1. Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.
  2. 2. Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.
  3. 3. Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.
  4. 4. Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.
  5. 5. Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.
  6. 6. Escort small children across roads and highways.
  7. 7. Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.
  8. 8. Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.
  9. 9. Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.
  10. 10. Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.

Key Skills Required

  • Active Listening
  • Critical Thinking
  • Monitoring
  • Social Perceptiveness
  • Speaking
  • Operations Monitoring
  • Reading Comprehension
  • Coordination
  • Service Orientation
  • Operation and Control

Knowledge Areas

  • Transportation
  • Public Safety and Security
  • Customer and Personal Service
  • English Language
  • Mechanical
  • Law and Government
  • Geography
  • Personnel and Human Resources
  • Psychology
  • Administration and Management

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace Bus drivers, school?

Bus drivers, school has an AI exposure score of 32%, indicating a medium level of automation risk. The majority of tasks in this role require human judgment, creativity, or physical presence that AI cannot easily replicate.

What is the job outlook for Bus drivers, school?

According to BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, Bus drivers, school is projected to grow by 0.2% over the decade. Current employment stands at approximately 387,300 workers.

What skills are needed for Bus drivers, school?

Key skills for Bus drivers, school include Active Listening, Critical Thinking, Monitoring, and others. Typical entry-level education is High school diploma or equivalent.

How much do Bus drivers, school earn?

The median annual wage for Bus drivers, school is $47,040, according to BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2024). Actual earnings vary by location, experience, industry, and employer. The BLS publishes detailed wage percentiles by region in its Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program.

What education is required for Bus drivers, school?

The typical entry-level education for Bus drivers, school is High school diploma or equivalent. Employers generally expect None of related work experience. On-the-job training typically involves Short-term on-the-job training. Requirements can vary by employer and specialization.

Which companies employ Bus drivers, school?

Bus drivers, school roles exist across many industries and employers. Workforce composition is estimated from BLS industry-occupation employment distributions matched to SEC-registered public companies.

AI Exposure Rating

1.6
out of 5.0

Medium automation risk based on 10 analyzed tasks. Most tasks require human judgment and are resistant to automation.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 and O*NET Database 30.0. Employment figures are rounded. Wage data from BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainWorkforce Editorial

Every figure on PlainWorkforce is rendered directly from BLS/O*NET source data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these figures, or report a data error. Data current as of BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.