High AI Risk Slow Growth

First-line supervisors of retail sales workers

SOC Code: 41-1011

First-line supervisors of retail sales workers carries a 45% AI exposure score (High automation risk), with a median annual wage of $47,320 and -5.0% projected employment growth from 2024 to 2034 (BLS), affecting approximately 1,432,600 workers. Full task breakdown, skills, and employer data are below.

AI Exposure Score
45% High
Above-average exposure

Proportion of tasks susceptible to AI automation (O*NET analysis)

Projected Growth
-5.0%
Below typical growth
2024–2034 (BLS)
-72,300 jobs
Median Annual Wage
$47,320
Typical pay
BLS May 2024
How wage figures are sourced →
The verdict

At 45% AI exposure, First-line supervisors of retail sales workers sits 8 points above the 37.2% average across 832 U.S. occupations - more exposed than 79% of them. Most of its core tasks still require human judgment.

45%
AI exposure
Top 21%
most exposed
-5.0%
Job growth 2024–34
$47,320
Median wage
F

Career outlook score

22/100

First-line supervisors of retail sales workers, weighted across 3 of 3 tracked dimensions

A weighted composite of median wage, projected growth, and AI-automation security (inverted exposure), each benchmarked against every other tracked occupation. It describes this occupation's standing across those three dimensions, not a guarantee of future outcomes.

  • Median wage F $47,320

    Annual median wage, percentile rank vs all tracked occupations

  • Projected growth F -5.0%

    Projected employment change, 2024-2034, BLS Employment Projections

  • AI exposure (inverted) F 45% exposure

    Lower O*NET task-automability scores lower risk; this dimension scores security, not exposure

Employment vs AI exposure

Home health and personal care aides is #1 of 832 occupations by employment (4.3M, AI exposure rank #392 at 35%) vs. Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks #1 by AI task exposure (95%, employment rank #17 at 1.6M).

4.3M
Home health and personal care aides employment (#1)
#392
Home health and personal care aides AI rank
95%
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks AI exposure (#1)
#17
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks employment rank

Automation-risk inventory

Exclusive cut of 832 occupations by PlainWorkforce automation-risk band. Orthogonal to the continuous AI-exposure distribution chart below and to this occupation's single risk badge, this is the corpus band mix, with First-line supervisors of retail sales workers in the High band.

Credential × growth standing

Open entry with non-declining BLS pace

First-line supervisors of retail sales workers keeps an HS / some college bar (333 of 832) and sits in Slow growth (245 of 832). Lower formal gates with a non-shrinking employment line - skill and AI desks matter more than credentials here.

Where First-line supervisors of retail sales workers sits among all occupations

AI-exposure score distribution across 832 U.S. occupations (O*NET task analysis). This occupation is marked in rose.

Where First-line supervisors of retail sales workers sits by AI exposure

AI-exposure score distribution across U.S. occupations (O*NET task analysis)

45% Higher than most higher than 79% of 832 occupations

Occupations, banded by AI-exposure score

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more occupations. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count and share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source O*NET task data (U.S. Department of Labor) · BLS 2024–2034

Source: O*NET task data (U.S. Department of Labor); AI-exposure scores are PlainWorkforce's analysis. As of BLS 2024–2034.

First-line supervisors of retail sales workers vs. its occupational neighbors

AI exposure (horizontal) vs projected 2024–2034 growth (vertical) for occupations in the same SOC group. First-line supervisors of retail sales workers is marked in rose; the top-left corner is the most future-proof.

Future-proofGrowing but exposedStable, lower-AIMost at risk27.4%36.2%45%53.8%62.6%-10.6%-6.8%-3.1%0.6%4.4%AI exposure (%) →Projected growth (%) →Retail salespersons, AI exposure (%) →: 45% · Projected growth (%) →: -0.5%Retail salespersonsCashiers, AI exposure (%) →: 61% · Projected growth (%) →: -9.9%CashiersFirst-line superviso, AI exposure (%) →: 45% · Projected growth (%) →: -5%First-line supervisoSales representative, AI exposure (%) →: 39% · Projected growth (%) →: 0.3%Sales representativeSales representative, AI exposure (%) →: 38% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.1%Sales representativeInsurance sales agen, AI exposure (%) →: 40% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.7%Insurance sales agenSecurities, AI exposure (%) →: 53% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.3%SecuritiesReal estate sales ag, AI exposure (%) →: 29% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.1%Real estate sales agCounter, AI exposure (%) →: 42% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.2%CounterFirst-line superviso, AI exposure (%) →: 45% · Projected growth (%) →: 0%First-line supervisoSales representative, AI exposure (%) →: 51% · Projected growth (%) →: 1.9%Sales representative

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034 (growth) and O*NET (AI-exposure analysis by PlainWorkforce).

Employment Projections

1,432,600
Employment 2024
1,360,300
Projected 2034
-5.0%
Change (%)
-72,300
Change (jobs)

Where This Score Comes From

First-line supervisors of retail sales workers's High automation-risk tier is computed from O*NET Database 30.0 task-level analysis, where each documented task the occupation performs is evaluated against current generative AI, robotic process automation, and machine-learning capabilities. A score in the 40–70% range indicates meaningful automation pressure on specific task categories, but the role as a whole still requires human judgment for coordination, exception handling, or client interaction.

The employment, wage, and education figures above come from a second, separate federal source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034, matched to the O*NET task data by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC 41-1011) code, with the wage figure cross-validated against the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) May 2024 survey. BLS figures are presented exactly as published, with no adjustment on our part; the SOC-code match is what lets First-line supervisors of retail sales workers be compared directly against every other tracked occupation on the same basis, not just roles that happen to share a job title.

For career planners, this profile should be read alongside the task, skill, and knowledge breakdowns below and the list of employers whose workforce composition includes First-line supervisors of retail sales workers. Public companies with meaningful exposure to this occupation, such as Amazon Com Inc and Walmart Inc., inherit a share of the same automation risk through their industry classification. Adjacent occupations shown further down offer lateral moves that preserve industry knowledge while potentially reducing exposure.

Education & Entry Requirements

Typical Education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work Experience
Less than 5 years
On-the-Job Training
None

Top Tasks (O*NET)

  1. 1. Provide customer service by greeting and assisting customers and responding to customer inquiries and complaints.
  2. 2. Direct and supervise employees engaged in sales, inventory-taking, reconciling cash receipts, or in performing services for customers.
  3. 3. Formulate pricing policies for merchandise, according to profitability requirements.
  4. 4. Examine merchandise to ensure that it is correctly priced and displayed and that it functions as advertised.
  5. 5. Monitor sales activities to ensure that customers receive satisfactory service and quality goods.
  6. 6. Instruct staff on how to handle difficult and complicated sales.
  7. 7. Assign employees to specific duties.
  8. 8. Hire, train, and evaluate personnel in sales or marketing establishments, promoting or firing workers when appropriate.
  9. 9. Keep records of purchases, sales, and requisitions.
  10. 10. Plan and coordinate advertising campaigns and sales promotions and prepare merchandise displays and advertising copy.

Key Skills Required

  • Active Listening
  • Speaking
  • Service Orientation
  • Critical Thinking
  • Monitoring
  • Social Perceptiveness
  • Coordination
  • Persuasion
  • Negotiation
  • Instructing

Knowledge Areas

  • Customer and Personal Service
  • Administration and Management
  • Sales and Marketing
  • English Language
  • Education and Training
  • Personnel and Human Resources
  • Computers and Electronics
  • Mathematics
  • Economics and Accounting
  • Administrative

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace First-line supervisors of retail sales workers?

First-line supervisors of retail sales workers has an AI exposure score of 45%, indicating a high level of automation risk. Some tasks in this role can be augmented or partially automated by AI, but core responsibilities require human judgment.

What is the job outlook for First-line supervisors of retail sales workers?

According to BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, First-line supervisors of retail sales workers is projected to decline by 5.0% over the decade. Current employment stands at approximately 1,432,600 workers.

What skills are needed for First-line supervisors of retail sales workers?

Key skills for First-line supervisors of retail sales workers include Active Listening, Speaking, Service Orientation, and others. Typical entry-level education is High school diploma or equivalent.

How much do First-line supervisors of retail sales workers earn?

The median annual wage for First-line supervisors of retail sales workers is $47,320, according to BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2024). Actual earnings vary by location, experience, industry, and employer. The BLS publishes detailed wage percentiles by region in its Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program.

What education is required for First-line supervisors of retail sales workers?

The typical entry-level education for First-line supervisors of retail sales workers is High school diploma or equivalent. Employers generally expect Less than 5 years of related work experience. On-the-job training typically involves None. Requirements can vary by employer and specialization.

Which companies employ First-line supervisors of retail sales workers?

Public companies with significant First-line supervisors of retail sales workers workforce shares include Amazon Com Inc, Walmart Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp /New, among others. These employers are mapped by industry classification (SIC/NAICS) to BLS occupation-industry employment distributions. See the full employer rankings for AI displacement risk grades.

Employers with High AI Exposure in This Occupation Group

Public companies whose industry occupation mix includes a significant share of First-line supervisors of retail sales workers roles.

Company AI Grade Risk Score
Amazon Com Inc C 45.5%
Walmart Inc. C 45.5%
Costco Wholesale Corp /New C 45.5%
Home Depot, Inc. C 45.5%
Mcdonalds Corp C 45.5%
Tjx Companies Inc /De/ C 45.5%
Lowes Companies Inc C 45.5%
Starbucks Corp C 45.5%

AI Exposure Rating

2.3
out of 5.0

High automation risk based on 10 analyzed tasks. A moderate share of tasks may be augmented by AI tools.

Nationwide occupations with similar workforce profiles

Two data-derived peer sets for First-line supervisors of retail sales workers: AI-exposure neighbors and BLS 2034 growth neighbors (distinct comparison neighborhoods, cross-occupation).

Similar AI exposure score

Nearest O*NET task-automability scores nationwide (45% here).

Similar projected growth (2024–2034)

Nearest BLS employment change rates nationwide (-5.0% here).

Peers are nearest-neighbor matches on published BLS + O*NET metrics among occupations with ≥10,000 workers in 2024; corpus ranks above sort the full tracked set.

What to do with this

Use First-line supervisors of retail sales workers' numbers above to compare, not just read in isolation.

AI exposure scores estimate task automatability from O*NET data; they are not a certainty of job loss, and BLS growth projections are estimates, not guarantees.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 and O*NET Database 30.0. Employment figures are rounded. Wage data from BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

Every figure on PlainWorkforce is rendered directly from BLS/O*NET source data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these figures, or report a data error. Data current as of BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

Sources: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, O*NET Database 30.0.