High AI Risk Declining

Computer programmers

SOC Code: 15-1251

Computer programmers carries a 54% AI exposure score (High automation risk), with a median annual wage of $98,670 and -6.0% projected employment growth from 2024 to 2034 (BLS), affecting approximately 121,200 workers. Full task breakdown, skills, and employer data are below.

AI Exposure Score
54% High

Proportion of tasks susceptible to AI automation (O*NET analysis)

Projected Growth
-6.0%
2024–2034 (BLS)
-7,200 jobs
Median Annual Wage
$98,670
BLS May 2024
How wage figures are sourced →

AI Exposure vs Industry Growth

Workforce demand by occupation Sanctioned bespoke signature viz (@signature-viz, KIZ-799) showing occupation-level workforce demand from BLS OEWS data. Pure SVG, no external dependencies.Projected Growth 2024-2034 (BLS)Technology+12.8%Healthcare+10.2%Professional+7.8%Education+5.8%Construction+4.5%Finance+4.6%Logistics+3.2%Government+1.2%Manufacturing-2.1%Retail-3.4%
National AI Exposure
40%
Average across all occupations
Avg Wage Growth
+3.2%
Median annual wage change
High-Risk Roles
127
Occupations with >70% AI exposure

Total occupations tracked

832

Covering all SOC major groups

Data currency

2024

BLS Employment Projections

AI exposure avg

40%

Fleet-wide median across all roles

Methodology confidence 92.0%
Industry standard

Composite score weighing O*NET task data completeness, BLS projection methodology, and cross-validation with employer risk grades.

Employment Projections

121,200
Employment 2024
113,900
Projected 2034
-6.0%
Change (%)
-7,200
Change (jobs)

Occupation Insight

Computer programmers (SOC 15-1251) carries an AI exposure score of 54%, placing it in the High automation-risk tier. This score is computed from O*NET Database 30.0 task-level analysis, where each task an occupation performs is evaluated against current generative AI, robotic process automation, and machine-learning capabilities. A score in the 40–70% range indicates meaningful automation pressure on specific task categories, but the role as a whole still requires human judgment for coordination, exception handling, or client interaction.

The economic context matters alongside the risk score. BLS counted approximately 121,200 workers in this occupation in 2024, and projects a -6.0% change through 2034 — a decline that often compounds with high AI exposure to create displacement headwinds. Median annual compensation stands at $98,670, reflecting both skill scarcity and the value employers place on the tasks that remain difficult to automate. Entry typically requires Bachelor's degree, plus None of related experience.

For career planners, this profile should be read alongside the task, skill, and knowledge breakdowns below and the list of employers whose workforce composition includes Computer programmers. Adjacent occupations shown further down offer lateral moves that preserve industry knowledge while potentially reducing exposure. Pair the AI exposure score with the BLS employment projection and wage percentiles above for a complete career assessment.

Education & Entry Requirements

Typical Education
Bachelor's degree
Work Experience
None
On-the-Job Training
None

Top Tasks (O*NET)

  1. 1. Write, analyze, review, and rewrite programs, using workflow chart and diagram, and applying knowledge of computer capabilities, subject matter, and symbolic logic.
  2. 2. Correct errors by making appropriate changes and rechecking the program to ensure that the desired results are produced.
  3. 3. Perform or direct revision, repair, or expansion of existing programs to increase operating efficiency or adapt to new requirements.
  4. 4. Write, update, and maintain computer programs or software packages to handle specific jobs such as tracking inventory, storing or retrieving data, or controlling other equipment.
  5. 5. Consult with managerial, engineering, and technical personnel to clarify program intent, identify problems, and suggest changes.
  6. 6. Conduct trial runs of programs and software applications to be sure they will produce the desired information and that the instructions are correct.
  7. 7. Prepare detailed workflow charts and diagrams that describe input, output, and logical operation, and convert them into a series of instructions coded in a computer language.
  8. 8. Compile and write documentation of program development and subsequent revisions, inserting comments in the coded instructions so others can understand the program.
  9. 9. Train subordinates in programming and program coding.
  10. 10. Consult with and assist computer operators or system analysts to define and resolve problems in running computer programs.

Key Skills Required

  • Programming
  • Active Listening
  • Critical Thinking
  • Complex Problem Solving
  • Quality Control Analysis
  • Reading Comprehension
  • Systems Analysis
  • Writing
  • Judgment and Decision Making
  • Speaking

Knowledge Areas

  • Computers and Electronics
  • Mathematics
  • Engineering and Technology
  • English Language
  • Customer and Personal Service
  • Administration and Management
  • Design
  • Education and Training
  • Geography
  • Administrative

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace Computer programmers?

Computer programmers has an AI exposure score of 54%, indicating a high level of automation risk. Some tasks in this role can be augmented or partially automated by AI, but core responsibilities require human judgment.

What is the job outlook for Computer programmers?

According to BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, Computer programmers is projected to decline by 6.0% over the decade. Current employment stands at approximately 121,200 workers.

What skills are needed for Computer programmers?

Key skills for Computer programmers include Programming, Active Listening, Critical Thinking, and others. Typical entry-level education is Bachelor's degree.

How much do Computer programmers earn?

The median annual wage for Computer programmers is $98,670, according to BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2024). Actual earnings vary by location, experience, industry, and employer. The BLS publishes detailed wage percentiles by region in its Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program.

What education is required for Computer programmers?

The typical entry-level education for Computer programmers is Bachelor's degree. Employers generally expect None of related work experience. On-the-job training typically involves None. Requirements can vary by employer and specialization.

Which companies employ Computer programmers?

Computer programmers roles exist across many industries and employers. Workforce composition is estimated from BLS industry-occupation employment distributions matched to SEC-registered public companies.

AI Exposure Rating

2.7
out of 5.0

High automation risk based on 10 analyzed tasks. A moderate share of tasks may be augmented by AI tools.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 and O*NET Database 30.0. Employment figures are rounded. Wage data from BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

Related

Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainWorkforce Editorial