Medium AI Risk Slow Growth

First-line supervisors of production and operating workers

SOC Code: 51-1011

First-line supervisors of production and operating workers carries a 35% AI exposure score (Medium automation risk), with a median annual wage of $71,190 and +1.2% projected employment growth from 2024 to 2034 (BLS), affecting approximately 698,600 workers. Full task breakdown, skills, and employer data are below.

AI Exposure Score
35% Medium

Proportion of tasks susceptible to AI automation (O*NET analysis)

Projected Growth
+1.2%
2024–2034 (BLS)
+8,300 jobs
Median Annual Wage
$71,190
BLS May 2024
How wage figures are sourced →

AI Exposure vs Industry Growth

Workforce demand by occupation Sanctioned bespoke signature viz (@signature-viz, KIZ-799) showing occupation-level workforce demand from BLS OEWS data. Pure SVG, no external dependencies.Projected Growth 2024-2034 (BLS)Technology+12.8%Healthcare+10.2%Professional+7.8%Education+5.8%Construction+4.5%Finance+4.6%Logistics+3.2%Government+1.2%Manufacturing-2.1%Retail-3.4%
National AI Exposure
40%
Average across all occupations
Avg Wage Growth
+3.2%
Median annual wage change
High-Risk Roles
127
Occupations with >70% AI exposure

Total occupations tracked

832

Covering all SOC major groups

Data currency

2024

BLS Employment Projections

AI exposure avg

40%

Fleet-wide median across all roles

Methodology confidence 92.0%
Industry standard

Composite score weighing O*NET task data completeness, BLS projection methodology, and cross-validation with employer risk grades.

Employment Projections

698,600
Employment 2024
706,900
Projected 2034
+1.2%
Change (%)
+8,300
Change (jobs)

Occupation Insight

First-line supervisors of production and operating workers (SOC 51-1011) carries an AI exposure score of 35%, placing it in the Medium automation-risk tier. This score is computed from O*NET Database 30.0 task-level analysis, where each task an occupation performs is evaluated against current generative AI, robotic process automation, and machine-learning capabilities. A score below 40% reflects tasks anchored in physical dexterity, unstructured environments, or high-touch human interaction that current AI cannot reliably replicate.

The economic context matters alongside the risk score. BLS counted approximately 698,600 workers in this occupation in 2024, and projects a +1.2% change through 2034 — modest growth that keeps the occupation viable even as tasks evolve. Median annual compensation stands at $71,190, reflecting both skill scarcity and the value employers place on the tasks that remain difficult to automate. Entry typically requires High school diploma or equivalent, plus Less than 5 years of related experience.

For career planners, this profile should be read alongside the task, skill, and knowledge breakdowns below and the list of employers whose workforce composition includes First-line supervisors of production and operating workers. Adjacent occupations shown further down offer lateral moves that preserve industry knowledge while potentially reducing exposure. Pair the AI exposure score with the BLS employment projection and wage percentiles above for a complete career assessment.

Education & Entry Requirements

Typical Education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work Experience
Less than 5 years
On-the-Job Training
None

Top Tasks (O*NET)

  1. 1. Enforce safety and sanitation regulations.
  2. 2. Keep records of employees' attendance and hours worked.
  3. 3. Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions.
  4. 4. Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.
  5. 5. Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.
  6. 6. Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments.
  7. 7. Interpret specifications, blueprints, job orders, and company policies and procedures for workers.
  8. 8. Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards.
  9. 9. Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators.
  10. 10. Conduct employee training in equipment operations or work and safety procedures, or assign employee training to experienced workers.

Key Skills Required

  • Active Listening
  • Speaking
  • Time Management
  • Management of Personnel Resources
  • Critical Thinking
  • Monitoring
  • Social Perceptiveness
  • Coordination
  • Judgment and Decision Making
  • Reading Comprehension

Knowledge Areas

  • Production and Processing
  • Administration and Management
  • Personnel and Human Resources
  • English Language
  • Computers and Electronics
  • Mathematics
  • Administrative
  • Mechanical
  • Education and Training
  • Engineering and Technology

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace First-line supervisors of production and operating workers?

First-line supervisors of production and operating workers has an AI exposure score of 35%, indicating a medium level of automation risk. The majority of tasks in this role require human judgment, creativity, or physical presence that AI cannot easily replicate.

What is the job outlook for First-line supervisors of production and operating workers?

According to BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, First-line supervisors of production and operating workers is projected to grow by 1.2% over the decade. Current employment stands at approximately 698,600 workers.

What skills are needed for First-line supervisors of production and operating workers?

Key skills for First-line supervisors of production and operating workers include Active Listening, Speaking, Time Management, and others. Typical entry-level education is High school diploma or equivalent.

How much do First-line supervisors of production and operating workers earn?

The median annual wage for First-line supervisors of production and operating workers is $71,190, according to BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2024). Actual earnings vary by location, experience, industry, and employer. The BLS publishes detailed wage percentiles by region in its Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program.

What education is required for First-line supervisors of production and operating workers?

The typical entry-level education for First-line supervisors of production and operating workers is High school diploma or equivalent. Employers generally expect Less than 5 years of related work experience. On-the-job training typically involves None. Requirements can vary by employer and specialization.

Which companies employ First-line supervisors of production and operating workers?

First-line supervisors of production and operating workers roles exist across many industries and employers. Workforce composition is estimated from BLS industry-occupation employment distributions matched to SEC-registered public companies.

AI Exposure Rating

1.8
out of 5.0

Medium automation risk based on 10 analyzed tasks. Most tasks require human judgment and are resistant to automation.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 and O*NET Database 30.0. Employment figures are rounded. Wage data from BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

Related

Data sourced from official public datasets. See our methodology for details. Retrieved and formatted by PlainWorkforce Editorial