Medium AI Risk Slow Growth

Refuse and recyclable material collectors

SOC Code: 53-7081

Refuse and recyclable material collectors carries a 38% AI exposure score (Medium automation risk), with a median annual wage of $48,350 and +0.9% projected employment growth from 2024 to 2034 (BLS), affecting approximately 147,900 workers. Full task breakdown, skills, and employer data are below.

AI Exposure Score
38% Medium
Typical exposure

Proportion of tasks susceptible to AI automation (O*NET analysis)

Projected Growth
+0.9%
Typical growth
2024–2034 (BLS)
+1,300 jobs
Median Annual Wage
$48,350
Typical pay
BLS May 2024
How wage figures are sourced →
The verdict

At 38% AI exposure, Refuse and recyclable material collectors sits 1 points above the 37.2% average across 832 U.S. occupations - more exposed than 63% of them. Most of its core tasks still require human judgment.

38%
AI exposure
Top 37%
most exposed
+0.9%
Job growth 2024–34
$48,350
Median wage
F

Career outlook score

35/100

Refuse and recyclable material collectors, weighted across 3 of 3 tracked dimensions

A weighted composite of median wage, projected growth, and AI-automation security (inverted exposure), each benchmarked against every other tracked occupation. It describes this occupation's standing across those three dimensions, not a guarantee of future outcomes.

  • Median wage F $48,350

    Annual median wage, percentile rank vs all tracked occupations

  • Projected growth F +0.9%

    Projected employment change, 2024-2034, BLS Employment Projections

  • AI exposure (inverted) F 38% exposure

    Lower O*NET task-automability scores lower risk; this dimension scores security, not exposure

Employment vs AI exposure

Home health and personal care aides is #1 of 832 occupations by employment (4.3M, AI exposure rank #392 at 35%) vs. Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks #1 by AI task exposure (95%, employment rank #17 at 1.6M).

4.3M
Home health and personal care aides employment (#1)
#392
Home health and personal care aides AI rank
95%
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks AI exposure (#1)
#17
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks employment rank

Automation-risk inventory

Exclusive cut of 832 occupations by PlainWorkforce automation-risk band. Orthogonal to the continuous AI-exposure distribution chart below and to this occupation's single risk badge, this is the corpus band mix, with Refuse and recyclable material collectors in the Medium band.

Credential × growth standing

Open entry with non-declining BLS pace

Refuse and recyclable material collectors keeps an No credential bar (109 of 832) and sits in Slow growth (245 of 832). Lower formal gates with a non-shrinking employment line - skill and AI desks matter more than credentials here.

Where Refuse and recyclable material collectors sits among all occupations

AI-exposure score distribution across 832 U.S. occupations (O*NET task analysis). This occupation is marked in rose.

Where Refuse and recyclable material collectors sits by AI exposure

AI-exposure score distribution across U.S. occupations (O*NET task analysis)

38% Around the middle lower than 37% of 832 occupations

Occupations, banded by AI-exposure score

Each bar is a band; taller bars hold more occupations. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count and share, and where it sits relative to this entry.

Source O*NET task data (U.S. Department of Labor) · BLS 2024–2034

Source: O*NET task data (U.S. Department of Labor); AI-exposure scores are PlainWorkforce's analysis. As of BLS 2024–2034.

Refuse and recyclable material collectors vs. its occupational neighbors

AI exposure (horizontal) vs projected 2024–2034 growth (vertical) for occupations in the same SOC group. Refuse and recyclable material collectors is marked in rose; the top-left corner is the most future-proof.

Future-proofGrowing but exposedStable, lower-AIMost at risk18.9%25.2%31.5%37.8%44.1%-6.1%-2.2%1.7%5.6%9.5%AI exposure (%) →Projected growth (%) →Refuse, AI exposure (%) →: 38% · Projected growth (%) →: 0.9%RefuseLaborers, AI exposure (%) →: 23% · Projected growth (%) →: 1.5%LaborersStockers, AI exposure (%) →: 43% · Projected growth (%) →: 8.5%StockersHeavy, AI exposure (%) →: 43% · Projected growth (%) →: 4%HeavyLight truck drivers, AI exposure (%) →: 36% · Projected growth (%) →: 7.3%Light truck driversIndustrial truck, AI exposure (%) →: 24% · Projected growth (%) →: 1.1%Industrial truckFirst-line superviso, AI exposure (%) →: 35% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.7%First-line supervisoPackers, AI exposure (%) →: 41% · Projected growth (%) →: -5.4%PackersDriver/sales workers, AI exposure (%) →: 34% · Projected growth (%) →: 8.8%Driver/sales workersCleaners of vehicles, AI exposure (%) →: 20% · Projected growth (%) →: 3.9%Cleaners of vehiclesBus drivers, AI exposure (%) →: 32% · Projected growth (%) →: 0.2%Bus driversShuttle drivers, AI exposure (%) →: 36% · Projected growth (%) →: 6.7%Shuttle drivers

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034 (growth) and O*NET (AI-exposure analysis by PlainWorkforce).

Employment Projections

147,900
Employment 2024
149,200
Projected 2034
+0.9%
Change (%)
+1,300
Change (jobs)

Where This Score Comes From

Refuse and recyclable material collectors's Medium automation-risk tier is computed from O*NET Database 30.0 task-level analysis, where each documented task the occupation performs is evaluated against current generative AI, robotic process automation, and machine-learning capabilities. A score below 40% reflects tasks anchored in physical dexterity, unstructured environments, or high-touch human interaction that current AI cannot reliably replicate.

The employment, wage, and education figures above come from a second, separate federal source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034, matched to the O*NET task data by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC 53-7081) code, with the wage figure cross-validated against the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) May 2024 survey. BLS figures are presented exactly as published, with no adjustment on our part; the SOC-code match is what lets Refuse and recyclable material collectors be compared directly against every other tracked occupation on the same basis, not just roles that happen to share a job title.

For career planners, this profile should be read alongside the task, skill, and knowledge breakdowns below and the list of employers whose workforce composition includes Refuse and recyclable material collectors. Adjacent occupations shown further down offer lateral moves that preserve industry knowledge while potentially reducing exposure.

Education & Entry Requirements

Typical Education
No formal educational credential
Work Experience
None
On-the-Job Training
Short-term on-the-job training

Top Tasks (O*NET)

  1. 1. Inspect trucks prior to beginning routes to ensure safe operating condition.
  2. 2. Drive trucks, following established routes, through residential streets or alleys or through business or industrial areas.
  3. 3. Refuel trucks or add other fluids, such as oil or brake fluid.
  4. 4. Dump refuse or recyclable materials at disposal sites.
  5. 5. Fill out defective equipment reports.
  6. 6. Operate automated or semi-automated hoisting devices that raise refuse bins and dump contents into openings in truck bodies.
  7. 7. Dismount garbage trucks to collect garbage and remount trucks to ride to the next collection point.
  8. 8. Operate equipment that compresses collected refuse.
  9. 9. Communicate with dispatchers concerning delays, unsafe sites, accidents, equipment breakdowns, or other maintenance problems.
  10. 10. Check road or weather conditions to determine how routes will be affected.

Key Skills Required

  • Operations Monitoring
  • Operation and Control
  • Active Listening
  • Speaking
  • Critical Thinking
  • Equipment Maintenance
  • Reading Comprehension
  • Coordination
  • Writing
  • Monitoring

Knowledge Areas

  • Mechanical
  • English Language
  • Transportation
  • Customer and Personal Service
  • Public Safety and Security
  • Administration and Management
  • Telecommunications
  • Computers and Electronics
  • Mathematics
  • Education and Training

Frequently Asked Questions

Will AI replace Refuse and recyclable material collectors?

Refuse and recyclable material collectors has an AI exposure score of 38%, indicating a medium level of automation risk. The majority of tasks in this role require human judgment, creativity, or physical presence that AI cannot easily replicate.

What is the job outlook for Refuse and recyclable material collectors?

According to BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, Refuse and recyclable material collectors is projected to grow by 0.9% over the decade. Current employment stands at approximately 147,900 workers.

What skills are needed for Refuse and recyclable material collectors?

Key skills for Refuse and recyclable material collectors include Operations Monitoring, Operation and Control, Active Listening, and others. Typical entry-level education is No formal educational credential.

How much do Refuse and recyclable material collectors earn?

The median annual wage for Refuse and recyclable material collectors is $48,350, according to BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2024). Actual earnings vary by location, experience, industry, and employer. The BLS publishes detailed wage percentiles by region in its Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program.

What education is required for Refuse and recyclable material collectors?

The typical entry-level education for Refuse and recyclable material collectors is No formal educational credential. Employers generally expect None of related work experience. On-the-job training typically involves Short-term on-the-job training. Requirements can vary by employer and specialization.

Which companies employ Refuse and recyclable material collectors?

Refuse and recyclable material collectors roles exist across many industries and employers. Workforce composition is estimated from BLS industry-occupation employment distributions matched to SEC-registered public companies.

AI Exposure Rating

1.9
out of 5.0

Medium automation risk based on 10 analyzed tasks. Most tasks require human judgment and are resistant to automation.

Nationwide occupations with similar workforce profiles

Two data-derived peer sets for Refuse and recyclable material collectors: AI-exposure neighbors and BLS 2034 growth neighbors (distinct comparison neighborhoods, cross-occupation).

Similar AI exposure score

Nearest O*NET task-automability scores nationwide (38% here).

Similar projected growth (2024–2034)

Nearest BLS employment change rates nationwide (+0.9% here).

Peers are nearest-neighbor matches on published BLS + O*NET metrics among occupations with ≥10,000 workers in 2024; corpus ranks above sort the full tracked set.

What to do with this

Use Refuse and recyclable material collectors' numbers above to compare, not just read in isolation.

AI exposure scores estimate task automatability from O*NET data; they are not a certainty of job loss, and BLS growth projections are estimates, not guarantees.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 and O*NET Database 30.0. Employment figures are rounded. Wage data from BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (OES).

Every figure on PlainWorkforce is rendered directly from BLS/O*NET source data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these figures, or report a data error. Data current as of BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

Sources: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, O*NET Database 30.0.