Job-decline ranking

The 50 fastest-declining occupations, 2024–2034

Ranked by projected percentage employment decline over the decade among occupations with at least 1,000 workers today (BLS treats smaller occupation estimates as low-precision), the roles BLS expects to shed the most jobs, with each one's AI-exposure score for context. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 (wages as of May 2024), across 832 tracked occupations. See our methodology for how AI-exposure scores are computed.

The short version

Word processors and typists tops this ranking. The full list below pairs each occupation with its AI-exposure score, so you can read the pay, growth and size of US work alongside how automatable it is, all from the same federal dataset.

The full ranking

# Occupation
1 Word processors and typists
2 Roof bolters, mining
3 Telephone operators
4 Switchboard operators, including answering service
5 Data entry keyers
6 Foundry mold and coremakers
7 Patternmakers, metal and plastic
8 Loading and moving machine operators, underground mining
9 Telemarketers
10 Grinding and polishing workers, hand
11 Engine and other machine assemblers
12 Drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
13 Forging machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
14 Model makers, metal and plastic
15 Cutters and trimmers, hand
16 Order clerks
17 Refractory materials repairers, except brickmasons
18 Payroll and timekeeping clerks
19 Structural metal fabricators and fitters
20 Print binding and finishing workers
21 File clerks
22 Nuclear power reactor operators
23 Office machine operators, except computer
24 Camera and photographic equipment repairers
25 Prepress technicians and workers
26 Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers
27 Milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
28 Adult basic education, adult secondary education, and english as a second language instructors
29 Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles
30 Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
31 Plating machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
32 Cooks, fast food
33 Pressers, textile, garment, and related materials
34 New accounts clerks
35 Machine feeders and offbearers
36 Tellers
37 Heat treating equipment setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
38 Desktop publishers
39 Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
40 Meter readers, utilities
41 Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
42 Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders
43 Interviewers, except eligibility and loan
44 Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders
45 Power plant operators
46 Terrazzo workers and finishers
47 Tool and die makers
48 Sewing machine operators
49 Computer numerically controlled tool operators
50 Bill and account collectors

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024–2034 (employment, growth, wages); O*NET task data for AI-exposure analysis by PlainWorkforce. Ranked across 832 occupations.

How this ranking is built

Employment, projected growth and median-wage figures come directly from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections 2024–2034 and Occupational Employment Statistics. AI-exposure scores are PlainWorkforce's analysis of O*NET 30.0 task data, estimating the share of each occupation's tasks susceptible to current automation. Pairing the two lets you see not just where the jobs, pay or decline are, but how exposed each role is to AI. You can verify the underlying projections with BLS →.

Caveats and limitations

BLS projections are model-based and carry their own uncertainty intervals; they predate the most recent macroeconomic shifts. Percentage changes can look dramatic for small occupations, always check absolute employment on each occupation page. AI-exposure scores estimate current task automatability and may shift as capabilities advance.

Related rankings

Safest from AI → Fastest-growing → All rankings Key statistics

Every figure on PlainWorkforce is rendered directly from BLS/O*NET source data, no number is typed in by an editor. See our editorial standards & corrections policy, the methodology behind these figures, or report a data error. Data current as of BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.